Trump to Decide on Russia-Oil Tariffs Within About 10 Days, US Envoy Sergio Gor Says

India now has a rough deadline for one of the biggest trade risks hanging over it. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said on Thursday that President Donald Trump is expected to decide within about 10 days whether to use new sanctions powers that could expose buyers of Russian oil and gas, India among them, to tariffs of up to 100%.

Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Gor said the law requires the President to make a determination within 30 days of its passage, and that the window now has roughly 10 days left. Trump has not yet imposed sanctions on any country under it.

The law in question is the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which Trump signed on September 18 after it cleared Congress with large bipartisan majorities (see our earlier coverage).

Three buckets, and India is in one

Gor stressed that the measures were not aimed at any single country. He described three categories under the law: buyers of Russian oil, buyers of Russian gas, and those helping Moscow evade sanctions. Countries are placed in those categories based on trade volumes, he said, and India happens to fall into one of them alongside many others.

He framed the goal as ending the war in Ukraine rather than punishing trading partners, and acknowledged that countries cannot cut off energy supplies overnight. Washington, he said, wants to work with partners to gradually reduce the money flowing to Russia's war effort.

Asked whether India could secure relief or an exemption, Gor said the decision rested entirely with Trump. He gave no indication either way.

Trade deal close, envoy says

Gor was more upbeat on the separate trade negotiations. He said the big picture, the framework and the major items of an India-US trade agreement were done, with smaller details still to be settled and new concerns possibly emerging along the way. The talks have run for around a year and a half, which he described as fast by trade-deal standards.

He noted that parts of the earlier arrangement had to be revisited after the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. He also said Washington wants deeper cooperation with India in defence, information technology, data centres and chip manufacturing, and sees India as a strong fit for artificial intelligence development in partnership with US firms.

Why the timing matters

The remarks come days before US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to Mumbai and Jamnagar, home to Reliance Industries' giant refinery complex, as part of a trip running from October 17 to 22. Energy cooperation is formally on the agenda for that visit.

For India, the stakes are high. A tariff of up to 100% on Indian goods would dwarf the 25% Russia-related penalty that Washington imposed in 2025 and removed earlier this year. With crude already trading above $100 a barrel, a decision forcing India to cut Russian supplies quickly would also raise its import bill.

The next 10 days will show whether Washington treats India's purchases as a problem to be phased down through negotiation or one to be penalised outright.

This is an original summary based on public reporting. See our editorial policy for how we source, write, and correct our stories.