Latvia Exit Poll Puts PM Kulbergs' United List Far Ahead, but Coalition Talks Loom

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs looks set to come out of Saturday's parliamentary election as the clear winner. Even so, he will almost certainly have to build a coalition to stay in office. An exit poll released when voting closed at 8 pm local time gives his centre-right United List about 35% of the vote. That would put it more than 20 points ahead of its nearest rival.

The survey was carried out by pollster SKDS with Rīga Stradiņš University and the LETA news agency. If the official count matches it, the United List would go into the new parliament as by far its biggest force. It would still be well short of a majority on its own in the 100-seat Saeima.

A crowded race for second place

Behind the leader, the exit poll shows a close fight among several smaller parties:

• Latvia First (LPV), a right-wing populist party that openly models itself on Donald Trump's politics: 11.3%
• The Progressives (P), a social democratic party: 11.1%
• Sovereign Power/Young Latvians (SV/J), a populist alliance seen as friendly to Russia: 10.8%
• National Alliance (NA), a nationalist party: 8.7%
• New Unity (JV): 6.7%

Only these six lists are projected to clear the 5% threshold needed to win seats. The Union of Greens and Farmers, a long-time fixture in Latvian politics, is put at just 3.7%. That would leave it outside parliament.

The biggest fall belongs to New Unity. It was the largest party in the outgoing 14th Saeima, but the exit poll suggests it will return as the smallest group in the new chamber.

Kulbergs welcomed the projection. He said the result showed that voters wanted change and plain speaking from their leaders.

Why the threshold matters

Exit polls in Latvia have not always matched the final seat count. The 5% barrier is the main reason. Parties hovering near the cut-off can swing the arithmetic sharply. One more or one fewer party in parliament changes how seats are shared out, and that in turn changes which coalitions are possible.

Fourteen candidate lists, with more than 1,400 candidates in total, competed for votes from an electorate of about 1.5 million. Turnout had passed 40% by late afternoon, on top of more than 11% of voters who cast ballots early.

Security and living costs dominated the campaign

The vote was shaped by worries about Russia and by the rising cost of living in the Baltic state, which borders both Russia and Belarus. Kulbergs campaigned on continued firm support for Ukraine. The Sovereign Power alliance opposes sending further Latvian aid to Kyiv.

That split will matter in coalition talks. A government led by the United List would be expected to keep Latvia firmly in line with NATO and EU policy on Ukraine. Any sign that pro-Russia or populist forces have gained ground would be watched closely in Brussels and in neighbouring capitals.

What happens next

Official results are expected in the early hours of Sunday as ballots from across the country and abroad are counted. Once the parties' real vote shares are known, coalition talks will begin in earnest. The new Saeima is due to hold its first sitting on November 3.

For now, the exit poll gives Kulbergs a strong opening hand. The main question is which two or three of the smaller parties he will invite to help him govern for the next four years.

This is an original summary based on public reporting. See our editorial policy for how we source, write, and correct our stories.