Israel Votes in First Election Since October 7, With Eisenkot Ahead of Likud and No Bloc Near 61 Seats

Israelis began voting at 7 am local time on Tuesday in an election that could end Benjamin Netanyahu's long hold on power, or leave the country stuck in another round of political deadlock. It is Israel's first general election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed.

About 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. More than 12,000 polling stations opened across the country, and most will stay open until 10 pm, which is 1:30 am on Wednesday in India. Election day is a public holiday, and the government has made train travel and longer intercity bus routes free to help people reach the polls.

The race in numbers

Thirty-six party lists are competing for the 120 seats in the Knesset. Israel uses nationwide proportional representation, so voters pick a party rather than a local candidate, and a party must win at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter parliament. No party has ever won a majority on its own, so the real contest begins after the count, when parties bargain to build a coalition of at least 61 seats.

The last polls before a pre-election blackout gave former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party a narrow lead, at about 22 to 23 seats. Netanyahu's Likud was at about 19 to 21, a sharp fall from the 32 seats it holds in the outgoing Knesset. An alliance of former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid was third with about 14 or 15 seats.

Counted by blocs, the picture is close and messy. Most surveys put Netanyahu's right-wing and religious camp at around 50 seats and the opposition at between 52 and 56. Arab-led parties were projected at 14 to 16 seats. That means neither side reaches 61 without help from parties it has said it would not work with.

Why small parties matter so much

The threshold could decide the outcome. Several small lists are polling close to 3.25%, including parties led by former general Ofer Winter and former minister Yoaz Hendel. If a party falls just short, all its votes are effectively wasted, which can hand a few extra seats to the other camp. One estimate from Israel's Taub Center suggests that at a turnout of about 70%, close to the 2022 level, a party needs around 166,000 votes to get in. Higher turnout raises that bar.

Turnout among Arab citizens is the other big unknown. An Eisenkot-led government would probably need support from at least one Arab-led party, either inside the coalition or from outside. Several opposition leaders, including Avigdor Lieberman, have said they will not rely on such backing, while Netanyahu has used the possibility to rally his own voters.

What the two front-runners stand for

Netanyahu, 77, has campaigned on security and experience. He faces criticism over the failures before October 7 and his opposition to an independent state inquiry, and he is still on trial on corruption charges, which he denies. Eisenkot, 66, has promised accountability, a state commission of inquiry and an end to broad military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. On the biggest security questions, including Palestinian statehood and Hamas, the two are not far apart.

What happens next

Television exit polls will be released as soon as voting ends at 10 pm. Partial results will follow overnight, but between 600,000 and 650,000 special ballots, including those from soldiers and hospital patients, are counted separately and could shift the final seat count. Officials hope to finish by Thursday, and the legal deadline for final results is November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult the parties before asking the leader with the best chance of a majority to form a government.

For markets, including India's, the outcome matters mainly through the region's security outlook and its effect on oil. A long stalemate would leave Netanyahu as caretaker and policy largely unchanged for weeks.

This is an original summary based on public reporting. See our editorial policy for how we source, write, and correct our stories.