Brazil Votes in Tight Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro Race as Polls Point to an October 25 Runoff

Polls opened across Brazil on Sunday morning in a first-round general election that pits President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Nearly 159 million people are registered to vote in Latin America's largest economy, making this the biggest election in the country's history.

Voting runs from 8 am to 5 pm Brasília time, which is 4:30 pm to 1:30 am in India. Because Brazil uses electronic voting machines, the electoral court is expected to publish a clear national picture within a few hours of polls closing.

A Race Within the Margin of Error

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term for the left-wing Workers' Party. Bolsonaro, 45, is running for the right-wing Liberal Party and is a close ally of US President Donald Trump. Eleven other candidates are on the ballot, but only these two have consistently polled in double digits.

The final surveys released on Saturday put Lula ahead but well short of an outright win. Datafolha had him on 45% of valid votes against 42% for Bolsonaro, while Quaest showed a much closer 46% to 45%. In hypothetical second-round match-ups, both pollsters found the two men in a statistical tie.

A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to win in the first round; blank and spoiled ballots do not count. If no one crosses that line, the top two meet again on October 25. Every Brazilian presidential election since 2002 has gone to a second round. For reference, Lula took 48.4% in the 2022 first round before narrowly beating Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff with 50.9%.

If Lula does win, he will become the oldest person ever elected to lead Brazil, a point he has tried to defuse by posting workout videos and joking that he plans to live to 120.

Much More Than the Presidency

Brazilians are also choosing 27 state governors, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, 54 of the 81 Senate seats and state legislators. The Senate contest carries particular weight. Only the Senate can try and remove Supreme Court justices, and a conviction needs 54 votes, which is why the right has campaigned hard for a large bloc there.

The four south-eastern states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo hold roughly 42% of the electorate and are expected to decide the outcome. Pre-election state polls showed Bolsonaro leading in São Paulo and Rio, and Lula ahead in Minas Gerais.

The Washington and Beijing Question

The vote has international stakes. Lula has deepened ties with China, Brazil's largest export market, while Bolsonaro is aligned with Trump at a time when US tariffs of up to 37.5% weigh on Brazilian goods. Whoever wins will shape how Brazil balances the two powers, along with its stance in groupings such as BRICS, where it sits alongside India.

Markets are bracing for movement. The Brazilian real closed Friday at about 5.22 per US dollar, and analysts expect a volatile Monday for the currency and local stocks depending on whether the race is settled tonight or heads for three more weeks of campaigning.

What Happens Next

Official counting begins as soon as polls close. If there is a runoff, the next three weeks will hinge on endorsements from the smaller candidates, who together hold around 10% of the vote. The new president will take office on January 5, 2027.

This is an original summary based on public reporting. See our editorial policy for how we source, write, and correct our stories.