Gold Hits Seven-Week High in India as Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Rate-Cut Bets

Gold extended its rally into the weekend, with international prices touching their highest level in seven weeks as weaker-than-expected US employment data strengthened bets on near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The move has pushed Indian retail gold rates back toward record territory, with silver holding firm just below its own recent highs.

A Sharp Weekly Rally

Spot gold climbed more than 2% to trade above $4,340 an ounce internationally, its strongest level since mid-June, capping a week in which the metal has gained upward of 7%. That marks its best weekly performance since January and reflects a broader shift in investor positioning after Friday's US jobs report came in well below forecasts. Weaker hiring numbers have reinforced expectations that the Fed will move to ease policy sooner rather than later, a combination that typically favours non-yielding assets like gold: lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while a softer dollar makes it cheaper for buyers outside the US.

Falling US Treasury yields have added further support, alongside renewed safe-haven demand tied to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Silver has moved in tandem, trading in the low $60s an ounce internationally even as it gave back some gains during the day on profit-taking.

Indian Rates Track the Global Move

The rally has flowed through directly to Indian markets. Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange opened higher and pushed to fresh intraday highs during the session, extending a climb that has taken domestic prices to within striking distance of their all-time peak. In the retail market, 24-karat gold was changing hands at roughly Rs 1,49,000 to Rs 1,52,000 per 10 grams across major cities on Saturday, with small variations between Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Kolkata and other centres reflecting local duties and transport costs.

Silver, meanwhile, held near Rs 2,40,000 per kilogram in most Indian cities, with a handful of southern markets quoting somewhat higher rates. Domestic silver futures touched a fresh intraday high before easing slightly as some investors booked profits following the week's strong run.

What's Driving the Move

Beyond the immediate jobs-data trigger, analysts point to a cluster of factors reinforcing the bullish case for bullion: a softer dollar, falling bond yields, and investors hedging against geopolitical risk that has kept markets on edge for much of the year. Global brokerage UBS has reiterated a bullish long-term view on the metal, projecting gold could reach $5,000 an ounce by the first half of 2027 if the current mix of easier monetary policy and steady investment demand persists.

For Indian buyers, the timing is a mixed bag. Elevated prices are a boon for existing holders and for exporters of jewellery who benefit from currency and pricing dynamics, but they raise the cost of purchases ahead of the festive and wedding season later in the year, when domestic demand for gold jewellery typically picks up. Jewellers and bullion dealers will be watching closely to see whether the current rally holds into next week or gives way to profit-taking once the initial reaction to the US jobs data fades.

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