India's Semiconductor Demand Forecast Jumps to $150 Billion by 2030

India's semiconductor ambitions received a significant boost this week after the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology revised its domestic chip demand projection to roughly $150 billion by 2030, a jump of about 50 percent from the estimate made just eighteen months earlier. The upgraded forecast reflects how quickly electronics manufacturing, automotive systems, and data infrastructure are absorbing chips made both at home and abroad.

Imports Still Dominate, But the Picture Is Shifting

Even as India builds out domestic capacity, imports of chips and related components remain the primary source of supply for now. Shipments of integrated circuits, microassemblies, discrete semiconductor devices, and light-emitting diodes rose sharply in the April-May period of this year compared with the same window last year, underscoring how starved the domestic electronics and auto sectors are for silicon. That import bill is precisely what the government's semiconductor mission is designed to bring down over time.

Three Plants Now Shipping Commercial Chips

The more tangible development is that India's chip-assembly ecosystem has moved from announcements to actual output. Micron Technology's assembly and test facility in Sanand, Gujarat, which represents an investment of roughly $2.75 billion, is now shipping DRAM and NAND memory modules after being inaugurated earlier this year. Kaynes Semicon's packaging and testing plant, also based in Sanand, reached commercial operation in the spring, while a joint venture involving CG Power, Japan's Renesas, and Thailand's Stars Microelectronics began commercial production at its own Sanand facility in early July. Together, these three units mark the first wave of India-based commercial chip packaging and testing at meaningful scale, even though full wafer fabrication capacity is still being built out.

Semicon 2.0 Widens the Net

To sustain this momentum, the government has rolled out what it calls Semicon 2.0, an expanded support programme worth roughly $13 billion. Unlike the initial semiconductor mission, which focused heavily on attracting fabrication and assembly investment, this second phase widens support to chip design, display manufacturing, advanced packaging, specialty materials, semiconductor equipment, research and development, and workforce training. The idea is to build a fuller ecosystem around the anchor plants already coming online, rather than depending on a handful of large facilities alone.

Why This Matters for Investors and Industry

For India's electronics and automotive manufacturers, a larger and more diversified domestic chip supply could eventually mean shorter lead times and less exposure to global supply shocks, a vulnerability that was exposed repeatedly over the past several years. For investors tracking the space, the near-term story remains one of capacity building rather than mass-market fabrication, since India still lacks a large-scale logic or memory fab of its own. The companies benefiting most immediately are those in packaging, testing, and equipment supply chains rather than pure-play chipmakers. Analysts tracking the sector note that execution risk remains real: past semiconductor announcements in India have sometimes slipped on timelines, and the gap between policy ambition and delivered capacity will be the key thing to watch through 2026 and beyond.

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